For Immediate Release
April 9, 2008
Lake Research Poll Shows Gerry Connolly with 20-Point Lead in VA-11 Democratic Primary
Fairfax, VA -- The Gerry Connolly for Congress campaign released a new poll today showing Chairman Connolly with a 20-point lead in the Democratic primary in Virginia's 11th Congressional District. The poll, performed by Lake Research Partners, reconfirms Connolly's status as the front-runner in the race and corroborates an earlier poll released in March.
"The dynamic of this race hasn't changed," said James Walkinshaw, Connolly's campaign manager. "Chairman Connolly's lead is large, it has depth and breadth, and he's on his way to winning this nomination."
Like the results released in early March, this 20-point lead is reflected in an initial head-to-head ballot question and is not affected by candidate profiles or negative messaging. It is an accurate reflection of where the race stands today.
Connolly was first elected to the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors in 1995. In 2003, he was elected Chairman of the Board. Prior to serving in elected office, Connolly spent ten years with the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee, where he managed committee oversight of international economic issues, international narcotics control and United Nations and Middle East policies. He received a B.A. in Literature from Maryknoll College and an M.A. in Public Administration from Harvard University in 1979.
(full text of polling memo below)
To: Interested Parties
From: Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri
Date: April 3, 2008
Re: Follow-up Survey of Primary Voters in VA-11
A recent Lake Research Partners survey of likely Democratic primary voters shows that Gerry Connolly, Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, has maintained his commanding lead in the Democratic Primary for Congress. Connolly continues to lead his closest opponent, Leslie Byrne, by double digits and among both men and women.
Connolly leads Byrne by 20 points in the poll's initial trial heat, 45% to 25% (Doug Denneny and Lori Alexander trail further behind at 1% each). This is almost identical to the 23-point lead that Connolly held in the January poll (45% to 22%). Connolly leads by a two-to-one margin among men (50% to 25%), but also outdistances Byrne by a comfortable margin among women (40% to 25%). He leads among voters under age 55 (41% to 24%) and voters age 55 and older (47% to 26%). In terms of political ideology, Connolly dominates among voters who are very liberal (51% to 27%), while also holding strong leads among voters who are somewhat liberal (41% to 24%) and moderate (45% to 24%).
Connolly's lead in the head-to-head match-up is owed to the voters' strong approval of his job performance as Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. Sixty-one percent (61% of the electorate thinks Connolly has done an "excellent" or "good" job as Chairman, while only 23% rate his work as "just fair" or "poor." Comparatively, only 41% rate the job that Byrne did in Congress as "excellent" or "good", and 31% rate her job performace as "just fair" or "poor" -- lukewarm approval ratings for a job she seeks again.
Gerry Connolly is the strongest candidate in this primary. His 23-point lead against Byrne in January has held for several months. By all measures Connolly is the front-runner in the race for the 11th Congressional District.
Methodology: Lake Research Partners designed and administered this survey, which was conducted by phone using professional interviewers. The survey reached a total of 500 likely voters in the 2008 Democratic primary election in Virginia's 11th Congressional District. The survey was conducted March 24-27, 2008. Telephone numbers for the sample were generated from a file of registered voters who have voted in recent Democraric primary elections in Virginia. The margin of error for the full survey is +/-4.4%.
